Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79b99991c91df1c75a13cdfaab6a5000000f47bae69f10ede212030b2b2b721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 1,968$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.84 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 30c | 1,480$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.82 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 1,153$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed No | 60c | 997.2$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 953.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 863.25$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.49 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 518.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 480.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 427.54$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 360$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 327.61$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 27c | 273.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 34c | 236.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 220$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 208.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 198.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 197.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 185.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 29c | 175.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 152.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 147.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 142.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 138.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 134.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 129.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 129.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 79c | 127.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 125.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 119.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 113.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 106.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 104.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 103.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 92.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 87.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 46c | 85.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 81.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 77.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 77.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 16c | 75.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 71.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 68.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 59c | 68.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 58.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 57.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 51.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 62c | 51.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 50.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 46.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 69c | 39.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 48c | 38.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 36.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 33.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 56c | 31.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 28.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 65c | 26.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 47c | 25.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 24.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 23.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 57c | 21.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 72c | 19.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…0b71backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 15.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.