Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd6e1e18a7f112ce2d0b32c76a43fb8862e97f12653e021075937aeaa1668fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,666$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 49c | 1,375$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.56 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 60c | 561.4$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 444.36$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 409.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 375.97$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 277$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 246$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 243.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 223$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 46c | 194.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 182.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 39c | 168.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 166.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 149.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 130.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 119.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 117.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 55c | 114.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 59c | 114.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 16c | 110.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 57c | 97.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 96.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 95.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 22c | 95.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 43c | 93.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 90.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 80.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 63c | 78.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 73.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 41c | 72.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 44c | 71.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 74c | 70.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 60.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 46c | 54.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 51.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 44c | 49.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 48.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 47c | 46.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 40c | 45.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 41c | 43.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 42.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 41.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 38.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 38.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 37.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 51c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 28.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 59c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 24.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 61c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.