TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,684 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No39c246.87$97 inLost-$96.855,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Yes53c189.82$100 inWon+$89.8214557.2%83 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No45c182.98$82 inLost-$82.341,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…c3b3backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.851050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes53c136.92$73 inWon+$63.928145.7%37 W · 44 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…bd29backed Yes54c129.2$70 inWon+$59.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No49c100$49 inLost-$48.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No46c96.36$44 inLost-$44.274,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Yes55c91.32$50 inWon+$41.3215149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Yes55c91.11$50 inWon+$41.1114547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No47c88.83$42 inLost-$42.051,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked No50c30$15 inLost-$153740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c26.62$13 inLost-$12.7890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a4e…9783backed No46c26.62$12 inLost-$12.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No47c23.17$11 inLost-$10.9919555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.