La Liga · resolved market
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84dfc4e68caa9ccafbe2c9df07ea633929290eccff755754720c1ef29171346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,748$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.78 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 1,732$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.38 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Over | 25c | 1,355$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.74 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2336backed Under | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 27c | 1,205$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.47 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 26c | 900$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 30c | 897.59$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 10c | 745$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 75c | 558.88$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 465.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 6c | 452.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 78c | 400.25$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 80c | 399.37$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 343.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 320$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 21c | 298.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 6c | 266.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Over | 24c | 220.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 68c | 194.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 25c | 141.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 83.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 25c | 79.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 440 | 39.3%173 W · 267 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 73c | 69.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 20c | 53.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Under | 76c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | -15.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 75c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 73c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 74c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 226 | 58.4%132 W · 94 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 0.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.