Champions League · resolved market
Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90f816567e77cda9f983d43e7cc71e0455c890f7f9d82b1e71bdf65badfddec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eb4…5821backed No | 72c | 153,000$110,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,840 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…6c32backed Yes | 28c | 153,000$42,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5486…f674backed Yes | 28c | 10,007$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…4ae7backed Yes | 28c | 10,007$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc523…0db2backed No | 72c | 9,993$7,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8e…3c44backed No | 72c | 9,992$7,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 10c | 9,365$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.11 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 68c | 7,196$4,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 23c | 5,582$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.38 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 24c | 2,116$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…6077backed Yes | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 71c | 1,100$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 940.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 71c | 893.76$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.19 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 74c | 840.17$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.73 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Yes | 29c | 636.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 24c | 600$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes | 26c | 560.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…4b76backed Yes | 49c | 530.14$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 325.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 28c | 296.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 28c | 272.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…08ddbacked No | 72c | 131.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked No | 73c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…fed3backed No | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…8e31backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcea…4645backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…a1a2backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 18c | 88.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 71c | 86.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…2108backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…f62ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…70f9backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…ae74backed Yes | 15c | 66.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…5464backed No | 72c | 56.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0b2bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…0cf9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 26c | 39.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…fb08backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…cf91backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…86c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…6a94backed No | 73c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12?Yes won
- Will Lille win on 2025-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.