Earnings · resolved market
Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9397ae270be6e9dec1cdd1d89b3e122b2a60647271261cda138bced069f7d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 39c | 1,342$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.31 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 41c | 899.43$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.5 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 38c | 302.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 300$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 74c | 271$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed No | 66c | 258.24$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +11.3wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 156.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 36c | 147.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 65c | 143$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 67c | 126$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 116.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 100.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 48c | 93.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 91.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 69c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 52.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…4aabbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 48c | 36.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 52c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 35.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 29.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…5ab0backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.