NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a77e619f3c7804db666560c8a85b8b5de67d3fd1b5cb101d168858db2bb8a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Saints | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rams | 48c | 15,842$7,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,238.08 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rams | 48c | 7,031$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,656.23 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Saints | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Rams | 50c | 4,876$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.66 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Saints | 52c | 4,477$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.71 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Saints | 39c | 4,324$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.77 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rams | 49c | 3,735$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.95 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rams | 63c | 3,170$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.7 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 50c | 2,438$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.93 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Saints | 52c | 1,940$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.2 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 52c | 1,836$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.13 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 51c | 1,684$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.69 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rams | 49c | 1,540$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.88 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rams | 49c | 1,470$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.91 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Saints | 52c | 1,267$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Saints | 52c | 1,241$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Rams | 48c | 1,132$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Rams | 48c | 1,088$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Saints | 52c | 991$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Rams | 48c | 872$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rams | 48c | 853.45$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.79 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Rams | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Saints | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Rams | 48c | 672$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Saints | 52c | 634$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rams | 47c | 507$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.56 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Saints | 50c | 500$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Rams | 48c | 369$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Rams | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Saints | 51c | 257.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Rams | 49c | 255.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Saints | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Saints | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed Rams | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Saints | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Saints | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Saints | 52c | 198.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Rams | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Rams | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rams | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rams | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Saints | 51c | 100.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…85f4backed Rams | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Rams | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Saints | 52c | 96.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Saints | 54c | 92.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rams | 48c | 82.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Saints | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Saints | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rams | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Rams | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)this page
- Rams Team Total: O/U 28.5Over won
- Rams Team Total: O/U 33.5Over won
- Saints vs. RamsRams won
- Saints vs. Rams: O/U 43.5Over won
- Saints vs. Rams: O/U 44.5Under won
- Saints vs. Rams: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-12.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-13.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.