NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3aa05f610945c6a31c520afc26ddbec21a4fd3e6df963605b5795de9cfa480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Timberwolves, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Timberwolves | 38c | 5,249$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.62 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 62c | 3,105$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 47c | 1,781$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 46c | 1,127$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.82 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…3dfdbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 45c | 701.45$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.8 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Suns | 46c | 637.41$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.55 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Timberwolves | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Suns | 67c | 540.41$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Timberwolves | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed Timberwolves | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Timberwolves | 56c | 360$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 44c | 299.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7050backed Timberwolves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 47c | 158.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…b8b0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 118.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 94.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 44c | 60.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Timberwolves | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. TimberwolvesSuns won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.