NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc9be37148ebade8c9ede2f6dc03f51bb2cff0a148ed62355b2f636a252fa18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Timberwolves, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Suns | 53c | 155,368$81,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,571.96 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Timberwolves | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 50c | 26,389$13,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,314.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 21,309$10,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,261.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Suns | 53c | 10,450$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.7 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves | 48c | 10,422$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.4 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 47c | 9,936$4,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,669.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 47c | 7,487$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,519.3 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 49c | 5,022$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.16 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Suns | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,754$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 2c | 1,458$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,331$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 495$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 406.12$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Suns | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Suns | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Suns | 51c | 266.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 198.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Timberwolves | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Timberwolves | 47c | 116.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Suns | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…2854backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Timberwolves | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…9422backed Timberwolves | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Timberwolves | 48c | 40.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Suns | 52c | 34.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Timberwolves | 48c | 31.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Suns | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…570bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Timberwolves | 48c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Suns | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. TimberwolvesSuns won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.