Fifa International · resolved market
Will Uganda vs. Nigeria end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4145e2a0d867b0747233bd8646c1a641a271402eeb2139e327e98d297bae9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 27c | 3,701$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.24 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,425$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.41 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes | 28c | 1,586$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 32c | 1,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 1,499$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.86 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 1,364$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.18 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 1,265$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.84 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…63b9backed No | 71c | 1,150$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 1,069$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.67 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 1,052$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.64 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 70c | 1,042$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.67 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc849…204dbacked Yes | 29c | 948.32$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed No | 71c | 844.36$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 70c | 822.86$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 2c | 770.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 744$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 678.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 626.2$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.37 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 31c | 569.91$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 541$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 434.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 406.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 375.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…27d0backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ab9abacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Yes | 29c | 344.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce5…02b3backed Yes | 5c | 320.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes | 24c | 258.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…9aa7backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 219.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Yes | 28c | 203.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 10c | 203.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 28c | 203.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 70c | 150.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e40…4e93backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 24c | 105.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 30c | 100.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…25f4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…61afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 94.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 16c | 91.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…aa0cbacked No | 73c | 88.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 79c | 77.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 30c | 72.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…42e0backed No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 28c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 25c | 52.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917a…e42ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 24c | 45.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 29c | 40.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 71c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uganda vs. Nigeria end in a draw?this page
- Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-30?Yes won
- Will Uganda win on 2025-12-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.