Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7cf583e03991da576f81721360c658ac4cf8cad3d281ec6ddf2303a3fb7a61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 54c | 910.53$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 388.14$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 61c | 352.52$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.97 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 39c | 341.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.42 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 52c | 294.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 39c | 238$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 142.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 121.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 39c | 117$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 109.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 62c | 98.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 91.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 90.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 84.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 63c | 80.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 40c | 76.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 73.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 43c | 72.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 69.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 40c | 66.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 65.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 62.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 55.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 52.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 52.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 51c | 50.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed No | 55c | 49.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 48.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 51c | 43.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 39.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 36c | 37.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 51c | 37.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 45c | 36.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 46c | 34.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 34.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 61c | 32.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 31.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 30.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 29.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 51c | 26.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 59c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ce…9040backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 62c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.