Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1232186779f7790cb1d745fb264fb375af2eb4cd3b7112080603e949546bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 0c | 8,571$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,592$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 1,143$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 73c | 816.34$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.27 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 51c | 650.21$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.81 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 52c | 526.21$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 509.37$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed No | 25c | 473.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.26 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 453.33$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 407.71$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 344.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 250.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 242.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 234.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 25c | 234.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.88 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 226.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 207.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 65c | 198.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 190.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 190.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 189.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 79c | 176.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 175.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 175$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked No | 32c | 157.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 74c | 139$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 130.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 127$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 126.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 126.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 30c | 122.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 114.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 18c | 113.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…7bc1backed Yes | 50c | 112.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 109.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 101.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 60c | 99.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 99.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 93.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 85.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 75c | 79.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 79.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 76.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 69.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 61.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 17c | 60.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 46c | 60.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 57.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 25c | 56.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 50c | 48.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 43c | 46.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 72c | 42.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 38.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…9784backed No | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 52c | 35.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 57c | 34.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 51c | 33.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked Yes | 48c | 33.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 31.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…4322backed Yes | 48c | 29.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 57c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 51c | 26.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 52c | 26.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 53c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 72c | 25.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 50c | 24.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 77c | 24.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…239fbacked Yes | 63c | 24.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 63c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 51c | 23.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 53c | 20.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 58c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.