TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Minnesota Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3ce0…59d5backed Minnesota Lynx0c32,016$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Lynx51c4,147$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.5222748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Atlanta Dream52c3,500$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.351050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Atlanta Dream40c3,050$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Atlanta Dream66c2,562$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.396851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Dream23c1,475$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.4637850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Atlanta Dream37c1,400$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.991643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Atlanta Dream60c1,310$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5248348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Minnesota Lynx57c1,110$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.3115346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx49c1,098$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.581,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Minnesota Lynx34c1,088$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.852839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Minnesota Lynx68c1,084$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.841040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Atlanta Dream34c1,018$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9912745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Atlanta Dream68c999.95$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9810249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Dream43c946.6$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.4855255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Minnesota Lynx69c911.33$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.6919428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Atlanta Dream33c898$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.2436750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Lynx50c701.13$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4910858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Minnesota Lynx46c606.19$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.521145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Atlanta Dream43c600.04$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.835149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Minnesota Lynx40c595.85$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.349044.4%40 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Atlanta Dream60c580.98$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.392759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked Minnesota Lynx40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+99.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed Minnesota Lynx78c496.12$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Minnesota Lynx60c460.37$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0661042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Atlanta Dream24c421.08$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7550952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Minnesota Lynx65c370.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9731043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Minnesota Lynx35c360$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12613024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd47f…169bbacked Minnesota Lynx67c299.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Minnesota Lynx64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x800b…152abacked Minnesota Lynx69c250$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Atlanta Dream31c247.02$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.639129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed Minnesota Lynx64c234.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5956…970abacked Minnesota Lynx65c216.54$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Dream33c200.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6331847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Minnesota Lynx38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9921337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Atlanta Dream44c190.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.911872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Minnesota Lynx54c175.13$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.572552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Minnesota Lynx57c174.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Minnesota Lynx51c173.91$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.136127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Atlanta Dream45c173.83$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.024854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Minnesota Lynx58c155.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.913528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6161…c834backed Minnesota Lynx59c153.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Atlanta Dream29c137.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.935156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87bb…42b0backed Minnesota Lynx66c136.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed Minnesota Lynx76c131.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Atlanta Dream26c113.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.85908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Minnesota Lynx47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Minnesota Lynx35c103.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.129146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Minnesota Lynx35c102$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.710039%39 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Minnesota Lynx35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Atlanta Dream56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.215660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Minnesota Lynx37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Minnesota Lynx66c99.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.510657.5%61 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Minnesota Lynx66c96.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.276237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Minnesota Lynx40c96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Minnesota Lynx63c91.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.624546.9%115 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e6…b54abacked Minnesota Lynx35c91.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Lynx61c84.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5185158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x73a8…5de1backed Atlanta Dream61c82.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.49757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Minnesota Lynx64c81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Atlanta Dream37c78.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.732548%12 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Atlanta Dream66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff2…330fbacked Atlanta Dream61c75.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Atlanta Dream16c72.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+110.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Minnesota Lynx63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadbc…8af3backed Atlanta Dream36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.83756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Atlanta Dream67c69.57$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.961850%9 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Atlanta Dream66c67.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.63666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Minnesota Lynx62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Minnesota Lynx66c60.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Atlanta Dream66c58.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.893342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Minnesota Lynx35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8f…16e1backed Minnesota Lynx35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx40c56.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.789349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Atlanta Dream33c56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.781526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Minnesota Lynx34c55.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8932948.6%160 W · 169 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Atlanta Dream58c53.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.451471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Minnesota Lynx40c51.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.534448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Minnesota Lynx46c50.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2614942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Minnesota Lynx47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Minnesota Lynx40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe8…e9d9backed Minnesota Lynx74c46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Minnesota Lynx33c45.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.155141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Minnesota Lynx76c42.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Lynx40c42.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Atlanta Dream29c41.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00bd…95f9backed Atlanta Dream37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Minnesota Lynx30c40.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.054070%28 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea87…8066backed Minnesota Lynx35c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb7…48bdbacked Minnesota Lynx66c34.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e4…56ecbacked Minnesota Lynx35c32.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Lynx63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d38…0183backed Minnesota Lynx53c31.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9e…8e90backed Minnesota Lynx35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Atlanta Dream66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Minnesota Lynx58c28.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4813358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Atlanta Dream59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.426946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e6e…6772backed Minnesota Lynx60c24.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Minnesota Lynx53c22.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.