Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Cameron Norrie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae930fa191c1b08a3dc1d3ca19a6ae4c7cdff3b75615838ba42fc32e60041962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tien | 66c | 9,040$5,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.02 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked Norrie | 45c | 7,879$3,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,515.89 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Tien | 52c | 5,120$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.6 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Norrie | 34c | 3,471$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.88 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Tien | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Norrie | 45c | 1,784$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.13 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Tien | 54c | 1,616$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.93 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Norrie | 45c | 1,555$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.84 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Tien | 71c | 1,536$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Norrie | 47c | 1,436$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.92 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Norrie | 39c | 1,398$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Norrie | 46c | 1,371$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.95 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Norrie | 48c | 1,363$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.43 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Norrie | 15c | 1,351$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Tien | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Norrie | 45c | 1,077$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.51 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tien | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Norrie | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Norrie | 46c | 984$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Tien | 53c | 917$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.99 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Norrie | 40c | 870$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tien | 55c | 840$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.2 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tien | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Tien | 53c | 777$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.19 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Norrie | 45c | 750$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Norrie | 45c | 559.64$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.28 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Norrie | 45c | 488.89$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Tien | 56c | 349.43$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Norrie | 45c | 334$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Norrie | 46c | 332.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Norrie | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Tien | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Norrie | 47c | 265.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Norrie | 40c | 222.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Norrie | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tien | 53c | 216.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tien | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…f574backed Tien | 56c | 189.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Norrie | 31c | 185.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Tien | 56c | 181.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Tien | 52c | 180$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tien | 55c | 174.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Norrie | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Norrie | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Norrie | 17c | 146.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tien | 66c | 123.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Norrie | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tien | 55c | 102.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Tien | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tien | 52c | 98.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Tien | 54c | 91.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Tien | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tien | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Tien | 54c | 65.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Tien | 54c | 56.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Tien | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Tien | 57c | 52.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Tien | 55c | 52.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tien | 70c | 52.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Norrie | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Tien | 55c | 51.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Norrie | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Tien | 77c | 49.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…8479backed Tien | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Norrie | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Tien | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Tien | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9f34backed Tien | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Tien | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Tien | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Tien | 56c | 33.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Tien | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Tien | 55c | 29.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…c192backed Tien | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…a86fbacked Tien | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Tien | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Tien | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.