China Taiwan · resolved market
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaec9e91c3ff05b07301bd7f1f6b75180fef0e347cd347c69c3e78179d408da4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,745$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 10c | 2,389$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…620cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,045$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…06d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,035$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…efecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,035$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…9f66backed Yes | 7c | 1,035$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…1409backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…0740backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…dea3backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…9eb3backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…f6fcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…715ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…4f36backed Yes | 7c | 979.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…190cbacked Yes | 7c | 975.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…fd4cbacked Yes | 7c | 969.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…fdbabacked Yes | 6c | 686$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…b66bbacked Yes | 7c | 686$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd7…de22backed Yes | 6c | 685$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…04a5backed Yes | 6c | 685$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…67e7backed Yes | 8c | 681.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…a5f7backed Yes | 7c | 681.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…c8a5backed Yes | 6c | 680$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…f985backed Yes | 7c | 679.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…27babacked Yes | 6c | 620$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b28…33a8backed Yes | 6c | 620$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…e7e9backed Yes | 6c | 620$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 8c | 602.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 33cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…7777backed Yes | 6c | 579.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6328backed Yes | 6c | 560$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…e6cebacked Yes | 6c | 560$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 74c | 550$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…5234backed Yes | 6c | 550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…b7f5backed Yes | 6c | 529.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 9c | 510.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e7…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 474.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 473.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…4ab0backed Yes | 22c | 468.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 448.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 425.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 390$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…19a3backed Yes | 6c | 380.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 75c | 369.53$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 363.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 358.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 326.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…2a84backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 249.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 247.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 238.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 25c | 193.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…7fffbacked No | 77c | 193.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 175.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7568…27b2backed Yes | 26c | 142.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…8f4ebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…21c3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d38…973dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…72a0backed Yes | 21c | 96.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…bfc6backed No | 75c | 93.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 91.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 76c | 86.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 75.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 75c | 74.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…5a92backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed No | 79c | 58.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 47.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…4f9fbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e7…9314backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0318…d067backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…15cdbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…1edabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…a711backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…559abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.