Premier League · resolved market
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4923744435d8538f9359e2e47364cfb92513534002ffc238ef9b2b4d263ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 23c | 15,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 205 | 45.4%93 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.89 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 4,576$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.9 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 2,069$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.85 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 25c | 1,249$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.59 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 80c | 1,009$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 24c | 986.46$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 78c | 707.7$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 76c | 263.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 23c | 255$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 231.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…d33bbacked Over | 24c | 208.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…9558backed Under | 78c | 203.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 24c | 138.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…15bbbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 23c | 90.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 24c | 78.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 57.6%144 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 23c | 52.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 24c | 49.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 78c | 41.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Under | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 79c | 28.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 76c | 24.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Under | 78c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 74cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.