NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf511371bc1e6a20417667a9e5cd51b3fc7cfbf7be53e90e49d0262fed4e9c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6557…0999backed Over | 53c | 3,423$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.91 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 733.44$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Over | 53c | 444.73$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.66 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 14c | 285.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 249.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 48c | 228.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 48c | 225.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 48c | 225.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 48c | 225.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 188.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 173.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 47c | 173.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 165$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 48c | 160.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 144.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 140.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 48c | 132.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 113.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 91.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 91.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 72.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 47c | 70.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 47c | 67.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 47c | 65.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 47c | 54.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 47c | 53.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 48c | 53.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Under | 47c | 39.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 52c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Over | 53c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 47c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 48c | 22.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. PelicansMagic won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.