NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc826772bc038b658f5066b9c52d3da859603bf008d4d7d2d60e75c5dcd7b4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 3,204$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.86 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 2,168$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.26 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 2,022$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.19 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 19c | 1,074$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.17 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 47c | 557.78$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 57c | 525.51$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 25c | 520.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 340.47$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 56c | 293.65$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 18c | 291.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 53c | 275.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 235.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 48c | 226.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 38c | 222.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 110 | 33.6%37 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 191.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 151.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 56c | 146.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 126.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 119.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Under | 76c | 103.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 10c | 103.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…306fbacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 77.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 54c | 69.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 18c | 63.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 44c | 35.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 44c | 35.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 44c | 28.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Over | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. PelicansMagic won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.