NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4a235d0a05c7b2b2f3d42e328bcde182e52524323964502ca8b22cdb7f7f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Magic, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans | 49c | 4,169$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.16 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Magic | 51c | 3,220$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.12 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 48c | 2,541$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Magic | 54c | 2,474$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.16 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pelicans | 43c | 2,376$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e54ebacked Magic | 56c | 2,232$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.1 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Magic | 52c | 1,719$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.98 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Pelicans | 45c | 1,284$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.34 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 48c | 1,157$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Magic | 52c | 1,105$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.32 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Magic | 52c | 1,027$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans | 46c | 908.29$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.99 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Magic | 53c | 733.43$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.72 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pelicans | 45c | 697.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.25 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Pelicans | 45c | 675.78$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.68 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…9cebbacked Magic | 52c | 492$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans | 47c | 488.38$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed Magic | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pelicans | 45c | 392.6$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Magic | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Magic | 55c | 360.87$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…d7d0backed Pelicans | 47c | 303.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Magic | 9c | 243.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…e0e9backed Pelicans | 48c | 201.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Magic | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Magic | 53c | 144.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Pelicans | 47c | 138.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Magic | 53c | 104.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 679 | 49.8%338 W · 341 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pelicans | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Pelicans | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Pelicans | 48c | 71.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 50c | 63.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Pelicans | 45c | 56.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…b834backed Magic | 53c | 45.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Pelicans | 45c | 43.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pelicans | 51c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Magic | 54c | 37.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Pelicans | 46c | 31.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Magic | 55c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Pelicans | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. PelicansMagic won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.