NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8001b7f7c8e50fff10a6e4abd16064a523231afefab9aff89702f233a9244554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 9,244$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.39 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 8,570$4,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,285.63 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 6,789$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 4,366$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 2,602$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.03 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…b5afbacked Over | 50c | 2,459$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 49c | 2,035$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.32 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Over | 52c | 1,762$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.35 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,438$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Under | 50c | 1,274$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.16 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 49c | 1,166$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.31 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 1,139$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.5 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 1,074$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 1,052$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.83 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 1,044$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 49c | 1,044$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 50c | 948.35$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.17 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 50c | 867$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 713.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.73 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 49c | 713.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.73 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 19c | 667.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…bd1bbacked Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 51c | 374$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Under | 51c | 342.56$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 326.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 50c | 227.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Under | 50c | 194.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…e0e9backed Under | 51c | 190.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 52c | 183.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 48c | 183.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 51c | 177.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 51c | 177.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 149.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 51c | 131.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.7wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +64%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 96.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 47c | 93.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…4d42backed Under | 50c | 89.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Under | 51c | 83.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 384 | 53.4%205 W · 179 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 77.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 71.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 69.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Under | 51c | 68.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 67.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 65.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Over | 53c | 61.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 60.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 59.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 51c | 59.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Under | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Under | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 50c | 38.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d1…e64dbacked Under | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 51c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. PelicansMagic won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.