NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x988c6f34c38eacd47c00ab65677a94037f1d7c5fd3ea20571b342c769eb00eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Magic, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans | 52c | 18,656$9,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,008.11 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Magic | 45c | 12,050$5,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,472.07 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Pelicans | 53c | 11,829$6,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,559.51 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Magic | 47c | 9,665$4,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,542.61 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 13c | 8,191$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 37c | 5,794$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.7 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans | 49c | 2,655$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.77 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 2,547$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 46c | 2,426$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.8 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Magic | 21c | 2,326$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.87 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Magic | 14c | 2,104$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pelicans | 53c | 1,939$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.43 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans | 42c | 1,517$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.87 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Magic | 47c | 1,370$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.9 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Magic | 13c | 1,249$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.46 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Magic | 49c | 1,029$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.2 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 47c | 549.86$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.43 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Pelicans | 53c | 416.85$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed Magic | 51c | 351.58$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Pelicans | 75c | 337.68$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic | 25c | 322.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Magic | 51c | 296.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Magic | 45c | 237.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 48c | 210.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Pelicans | 51c | 207.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Pelicans | 53c | 203.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pelicans | 47c | 202.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Pelicans | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Pelicans | 48c | 166.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Magic | 47c | 148.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Magic | 51c | 144.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Pelicans | 47c | 137.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Magic | 14c | 125.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Pelicans | 42c | 125.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Magic | 13c | 125.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Pelicans | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Pelicans | 51c | 116.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Magic | 16c | 111.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Magic | 13c | 102.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Magic | 13c | 100.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Magic | 13c | 100.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Magic | 10c | 99.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 98.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pelicans | 52c | 97.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pelicans | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Magic | 48c | 94.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Pelicans | 45c | 85.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…8198backed Pelicans | 52c | 84.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Pelicans | 53c | 78.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 31c | 75.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…fca5backed Pelicans | 54c | 69.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pelicans | 45c | 69.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 31c | 64.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…f06fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Pelicans | 61c | 60.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Pelicans | 53c | 60.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Pelicans | 49c | 59.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…7f2cbacked Magic | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pelicans | 45c | 55.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…f0d0backed Magic | 49c | 51.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Magic | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 51c | 46.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked Pelicans | 53c | 45.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Magic | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…93e9backed Magic | 48c | 40.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed Pelicans | 53c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Pelicans | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Pelicans | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -12.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Magic | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Pelicans | 52c | 29.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…5b0fbacked Pelicans | 52c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Pelicans | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pelicans | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Magic | 49c | 23.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…5ce2backed Magic | 49c | 22.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Pelicans | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Pelicans | 77c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. PelicansMagic won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.