TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DENDELE CSof DENDELE CS, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$351,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FaZe60c13,407$7,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,997.3736753.7%197 W · 170 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed DENDELE CS29c10,040$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,083.323360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4a1…e26abacked FaZe0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102661.5%16 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked DENDELE CS31c8,320$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.794647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FaZe70c7,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DENDELE CS22c6,031$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,728.22,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked DENDELE CS31c5,958$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,120.916842.9%72 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed DENDELE CS32c5,753$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,925.3219336.8%71 W · 122 L-0.9wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed FaZe70c5,198$3,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.67459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FaZe62c5,099$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.1232752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FaZe59c4,821$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.687847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed DENDELE CS33c4,524$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.5923343.8%102 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FaZe70c4,128$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.61,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked FaZe65c3,997$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.7192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed DENDELE CS28c3,776$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,714.1633232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed DENDELE CS48c3,613$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.042,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FaZe63c3,538$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.171,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FaZe64c3,000$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9301,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FaZe70c2,885$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.111,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DENDELE CS34c2,735$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.972,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked DENDELE CS35c2,670$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.4917546.9%82 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FaZe70c2,425$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.62,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DENDELE CS56c2,377$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.8582143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed DENDELE CS27c2,182$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.566572.3%47 W · 18 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+38.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed DENDELE CS28c2,087$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.0543764.3%281 W · 156 L+51.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked DENDELE CS46c2,017$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.871,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FaZe44c1,923$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4976657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked DENDELE CS18c1,905$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.16854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FaZe52c1,716$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.327,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…b180backed FaZe73c1,710$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked FaZe71c1,551$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.223948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DENDELE CS32c1,522$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.085,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed DENDELE CS32c1,500$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9916737.7%63 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed DENDELE CS16c1,440$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.161,04153.1%553 W · 488 L+63.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed DENDELE CS25c1,400$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.9616633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked FaZe71c1,388$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.714971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed FaZe71c1,373$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.8673758.2%429 W · 308 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed FaZe74c1,350$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.610150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed FaZe78c1,320$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.333154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbf…1a6bbacked DENDELE CS20c1,279$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FaZe19c1,267$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.42,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked FaZe68c1,261$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.3322641.2%93 W · 133 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed DENDELE CS18c1,250$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02511149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed DENDELE CS35c1,198$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.9110249%50 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed FaZe71c1,062$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.2328261.3%173 W · 109 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FaZe57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked FaZe30c999.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30243437.6%163 W · 271 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked FaZe68c999.99$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9911753.8%63 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed DENDELE CS29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9937845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FaZe57c965.21$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1789546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c95…10f5backed FaZe71c948.88$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.144551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed DENDELE CS29c915$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.8522554.2%122 W · 103 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed DENDELE CS42c900$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5229748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed DENDELE CS37c890.85$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.249450%47 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed FaZe50c686.17$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.1621443%92 W · 122 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FaZe51c669.6$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.215,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed FaZe71c650$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.517163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed DENDELE CS15c624.2$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.5756938.1%217 W · 352 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed FaZe71c599.99$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9915244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FaZe71c595.77$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4231,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed FaZe52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,32544.1%584 W · 741 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed FaZe71c571.3$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6213360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00b…8897backed DENDELE CS42c563$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3295151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FaZe57c554.38$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.16,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked FaZe64c512$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6827954.1%151 W · 128 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed FaZe64c510$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.452150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked DENDELE CS51c503.94$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.433,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed FaZe70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35021360.1%128 W · 85 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DENDELE CS29c491.07$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.661,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…4103backed DENDELE CS30c440$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3082272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked DENDELE CS48c416.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.933,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FaZe40c410.32$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.342,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed DENDELE CS25c402$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.510429.8%31 W · 73 L-0.5wins0.00per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked DENDELE CS25c397.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2840950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed FaZe51c390$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010556.2%59 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed FaZe29c387$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3346246.8%216 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked FaZe71c374.73$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.067045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked DENDELE CS30c364$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.83557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0378…7634backed FaZe70c357.14$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked DENDELE CS39c346.58$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5836145.4%164 W · 197 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FaZe30c341.55$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.853,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked FaZe49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507537.3%28 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked DENDELE CS29c303.24$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.2414645.2%66 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked DENDELE CS63c298.67$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6943253%229 W · 203 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x631a…a80fbacked DENDELE CS33c298.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.535633.9%19 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked FaZe75c285.71$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2511155%61 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked DENDELE CS40c277.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.74,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed FaZe71c269.8$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5622940.2%92 W · 137 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x151e…58debacked DENDELE CS59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2413765%89 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed DENDELE CS41c249.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.51,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed FaZe64c249.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9932047.2%151 W · 169 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed DENDELE CS30c246.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.7416051.3%82 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061f…b264backed FaZe71c242.24$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FaZe28c238.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.332,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DENDELE CS32c235.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.941,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed DENDELE CS33c222.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6515145.7%69 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed FaZe48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008843.2%38 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed DENDELE CS30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14021346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec4…8bc9backed DENDELE CS42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1167263.9%46 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed FaZe60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.