Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafba093bd73a7ae6620d2397678f30f3a93d954939a993df08d0f7ece1e286c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,352$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 41c | 1,300$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.94 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 38c | 1,130$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.96 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 59c | 1,013$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 40c | 592.26$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.21 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 556.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 60c | 510.94$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 490.12$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 426.15$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…5ab8backed Yes | 39c | 395.94$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 377.17$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 359.19$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 342.13$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 303.7$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 294.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 228.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 217.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 167.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 159.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 67c | 150.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 142.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 59c | 137.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 36c | 123.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 14c | 121.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 115.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 102.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 44c | 95.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…f7ddbacked No | 53c | 95.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 89.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 88.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 84.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 84.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 58c | 82.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 80.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 77.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 62c | 75.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 74.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 74.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 47c | 72.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 69.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 67.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 67.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 67.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 38c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 66.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 19c | 64.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 18c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 53.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 53.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 60c | 47.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 47.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 43.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 38.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 37.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed No | 52c | 35.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 34.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 33.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 31.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…722ebacked No | 65c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 23.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…5e42backed Yes | 52c | 21.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 20.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 68c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.