Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113546c8a41c749bd20e43468f38d744e1ffda889364156ed6b176de2707be19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 2,110$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 41c | 1,887$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 71c | 1,878$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.97 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,311$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,184$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 685.51$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 554.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 78c | 510.04$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 441.32$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 436.59$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 6c | 435.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 424$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 411.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 391.04$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 22c | 364.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 302.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 245.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 219.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 217.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 183.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 159.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 149.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 142.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 118.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 31c | 103.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…cdd1backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 96.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 93.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 92.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 89.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 89.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 85.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 84.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 15c | 81.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 79.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 77.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 34c | 76.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 75.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 16c | 74.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 70.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 66.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 30c | 63.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 58.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 55.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 51.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 47.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 47.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 21c | 47.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 42c | 40.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 71c | 29.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 28.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.