TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,235 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c5f…a235backed No69c3,622$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.611148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c3,164$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c1,497$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.488,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c1,028$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.144,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No72c759.98$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.921,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf381…40c2backed Yes26c699.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.429436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c684.53$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes27c644$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.014,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes31c616.21$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.892,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes15c418$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.391444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No78c416.74$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.117658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No76c398.67$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8442762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c351.43$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.662,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes20c330$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26431454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c325$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No7c315.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.082,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No79c313.4$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6717352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c276.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No36c263.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.574,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes33c260.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.551,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c254.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes28c250$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18097152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c218.95$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece5…43cfbacked Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes13c195.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.011,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes42c184.64$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No69c182.33$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c161.95$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.424,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c150$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c142.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.913,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes31c141$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.292,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c119.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.263,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2d…6968backed Yes48c117.72$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.726940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes45c101.66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7313048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes28c96.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.361,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2911626.7%31 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes26c87.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.182,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes27c87.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6429219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No75c84.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.021,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes24c82.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes16c79.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.320027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c77.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.452,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c75.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No62c73.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.652,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c66.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.86,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.284,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No41c58.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.862,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes27c54.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.121,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes19c54.59$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c50.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.262,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes29c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No70c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c48.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.144,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c47.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.341,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c43.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.473,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked Yes27c42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6627754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes29c41.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7551156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2815246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x166f…dcfebacked Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…df40backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.68865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2811154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No30c38.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c38.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.291,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes31c37.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.681,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c36.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.872,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed No79c34.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.35658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No74c31.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5128368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No63c29.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.782,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No71c27.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3528360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No48c26.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.671057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a8…7493backed No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163060%18 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c24.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.282,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34c…9fecbacked No77c23.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No76c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7234151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No64c21.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No68c20.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7387437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No64c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8830849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No79c16.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8425758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0138…c513backed No74c16.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No77c15.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8428068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.