Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08f5e7dd55cc634c348f375b8254358034c17246e1b1bac1a7d81eae47b6581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad2b…2a8ebacked Hive | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Hive | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 1,552$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.36 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Hive | 40c | 1,249$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Hive | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hive | 39c | 1,134$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 1,000$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.38 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…f53cbacked Hive | 30c | 507.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed Hive | 33c | 499.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 425.25$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 397.85$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 289.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…34fbbacked Hive | 35c | 278.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 269.68$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hive | 45c | 262$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…1a1cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 217.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Hive | 55c | 210.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Hive | 34c | 206$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Hive | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 28c | 162.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 146.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Hive | 33c | 144.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Hive | 41c | 135.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Hive | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 121.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 42c | 118$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 110.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Hive | 39c | 105.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…4a99backed Hive | 20c | 100.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Hive | 16c | 93.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…5154backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 92.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Hive | 27c | 90.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hive | 41c | 87.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 84.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hive | 20c | 77.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 67.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Hive | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Hive | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Hive | 28c | 58.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 50.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Hive | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…79c0backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Hive | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d93fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 36.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Hive | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hive | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Hive | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…debbbacked Hive | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Hive | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 27.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Hive | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…138ebacked Hive | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…af5ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Hive - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.