Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fe8a6c0e571be67ef3be2bee614777003e1ba0f34abc34ffd4451b1037779d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 47c | 1,800$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.37 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 3c | 1,132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 600.58$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 300$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 229.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 43c | 207.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 206$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 196.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 49c | 196.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 56c | 187$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 184.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 158.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 141.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 73c | 113.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 107.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 104.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 104.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 94.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 80.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 74.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 74.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 74.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 51c | 70.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 69.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 17c | 68.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 64.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 49c | 59.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 58.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 57.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 49c | 54.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 53c | 52.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 52.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 76c | 52.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 48.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 32c | 47.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 46.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 45.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 42.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 73c | 35.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 47c | 33.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 30.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf07e…a330backed No | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 40c | 26.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 56c | 23.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 48c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.