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Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification WTA: Francesca Jones vs Joanna Garland

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Francesca Jonesof Francesca Jones, Joanna Garland
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed Joanna Garland5c134,946$7,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,046.941030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Joanna Garland25c22,885$5,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,612.2278047.2%368 W · 412 L+2.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Francesca Jones75c15,141$11,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,841.961,25046.2%578 W · 672 L-1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Francesca Jones66c14,454$9,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,847.28,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Joanna Garland42c11,916$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00038647.4%183 W · 203 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Joanna Garland37c9,609$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.344,40752.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L+66.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Francesca Jones61c7,951$4,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,104.561,29556.6%733 W · 562 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Joanna Garland41c7,500$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,102.9840149.1%197 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Francesca Jones78c4,900$3,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07826165.1%170 W · 91 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Francesca Jones74c4,834$3,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9812848.4%62 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Francesca Jones59c4,777$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.792,54551.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Joanna Garland32c4,497$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.035,07541.5%2,104 W · 2,971 L-83.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked Francesca Jones78c3,795$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.9827254.4%148 W · 124 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…caf0backed Francesca Jones78c3,205$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.1310770.1%75 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Francesca Jones57c2,830$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.2155343.2%239 W · 314 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Francesca Jones59c2,690$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.711,73348.4%839 W · 894 L+40.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de2…11a9backed Joanna Garland40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011047.3%52 W · 58 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Joanna Garland6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.999897.9%78 W · 911 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Francesca Jones58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1427553.8%148 W · 127 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9781backed Joanna Garland4c1,636$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Francesca Jones58c1,111$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6215253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Francesca Jones59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41018045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Joanna Garland25c959.31$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.838623.3%20 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Joanna Garland41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36992149.8%459 W · 462 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Joanna Garland38c838.33$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.382,58138.7%999 W · 1,582 L+100.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d40…ba95backed Francesca Jones63c777.75$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.779241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Francesca Jones57c697.67$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012051.7%62 W · 58 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Francesca Jones59c583.41$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9287650.3%441 W · 435 L+23.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Francesca Jones60c524.25$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.993,39748.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L-47.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Joanna Garland40c524.25$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.717239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a1…1c2ebacked Joanna Garland21c467.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014221.1%30 W · 112 L-12.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Joanna Garland39c435$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.651,70950.6%864 W · 845 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…935fbacked Joanna Garland6c425.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5218822.9%43 W · 145 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Francesca Jones61c340$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.623847.1%112 W · 126 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Joanna Garland42c316.13$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.612,29642.9%984 W · 1,312 L+37.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Francesca Jones59c293.16$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.441,00449.5%497 W · 507 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed Francesca Jones75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6712349.6%61 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Francesca Jones59c264$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.125,60048.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L+10.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Francesca Jones79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.59,44444.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L-249.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f4…df56backed Joanna Garland40c247.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Joanna Garland27c242.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.91,85646.8%868 W · 988 L-55.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Francesca Jones73c232.83$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.872,07652.9%1,099 W · 977 L+33.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Francesca Jones60c207$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.764,64767.7%3,147 W · 1,500 L+308.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Francesca Jones60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8016847%79 W · 89 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Francesca Jones63c199.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7419852%103 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Joanna Garland21c199.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.954,80349.5%2,379 W · 2,424 L+174.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Francesca Jones59c193.86$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4832745.3%148 W · 179 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Francesca Jones63c193$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4133549.6%166 W · 169 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Francesca Jones79c189.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8550842.5%216 W · 292 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Francesca Jones77c183.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.781,52243.9%668 W · 854 L-26.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Francesca Jones61c172.61$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3254540.2%219 W · 326 L+40.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf7f…d110backed Joanna Garland37c155.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Joanna Garland39c155.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1228136.3%102 W · 179 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Francesca Jones58c142.93$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9346064.3%296 W · 164 L+24.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Francesca Jones61c142.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6953955.5%299 W · 240 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Francesca Jones57c140.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.354934.7%17 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Joanna Garland39c140$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.676339.2%299 W · 464 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Joanna Garland37c132$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3515155%83 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked Joanna Garland37c129.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7526049.2%128 W · 132 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Francesca Jones58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6931555.9%176 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Joanna Garland32c119.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.181,60624.4%392 W · 1,214 L-41.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71bf…f6edbacked Joanna Garland36c109.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.477960.8%48 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Francesca Jones77c105.28$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6355351.9%287 W · 266 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Joanna Garland39c103.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.637,22749.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L+118.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Francesca Jones57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2384647.9%405 W · 441 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bc…c93dbacked Francesca Jones60c91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.41540%6 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-41.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Francesca Jones58c87.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.737949.6%188 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2b…2cd8backed Francesca Jones63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3725360.5%153 W · 100 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Francesca Jones63c77.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8514856.1%83 W · 65 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed Joanna Garland41c74.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5119047.4%90 W · 100 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Francesca Jones69c68.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.352,36952.2%1,236 W · 1,133 L+87.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Francesca Jones58c67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1498044.7%438 W · 542 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Francesca Jones64c64.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372,45151.7%1,268 W · 1,183 L+11.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Francesca Jones73c64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281,91759.3%1,136 W · 781 L+3.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Francesca Jones62c56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.284,08145.7%1,867 W · 2,214 L-30.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Joanna Garland39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,37728.9%1,553 W · 3,824 L-20.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c20…2256backed Francesca Jones60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…f256backed Joanna Garland40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Francesca Jones58c49.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.921,10449.7%549 W · 555 L+46.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Francesca Jones64c47.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.781,12337.2%418 W · 705 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Francesca Jones73c45.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3353647%252 W · 284 L+27.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Joanna Garland40c45.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.251,98846.1%917 W · 1,071 L-3.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Francesca Jones63c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6561746.2%285 W · 332 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeed…3aecbacked Francesca Jones77c41.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.434551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked Francesca Jones63c39.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14cf…d8d2backed Francesca Jones77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa187…aa65backed Joanna Garland39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Joanna Garland37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6927045.9%124 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2318…36c8backed Joanna Garland39c33.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Francesca Jones79c32.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.666,89848.9%3,374 W · 3,524 L+61.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Francesca Jones78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.639764.7%257 W · 140 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Francesca Jones64c29.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.794742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Francesca Jones58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8616653%88 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Francesca Jones61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752630.8%8 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-42%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x13b2…5486backed Francesca Jones60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010276.5%78 W · 24 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eb9…2e4cbacked Francesca Jones62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1911468.4%78 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Francesca Jones58c23.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9712751.2%65 W · 62 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Francesca Jones58c23.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7882262.2%511 W · 311 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…2a0abacked Francesca Jones59c21.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…2dfabacked Francesca Jones59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.