Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3df0604fa1677cca05f6563d5896c83b16c4bdcf5ad7f1bf9e9006a0a6a426f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: San Francisco Donsof Washington State Cougars, San Francisco Dons
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,469 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf152…64aabacked San Francisco Dons	70c	7,374$5,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,222.75	123	64.2%79 W · 44 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Washington State Cougars	30c	3,300$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	279	47.3%132 W · 147 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Washington State Cougars	31c	2,258$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.98	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked San Francisco Dons	69c	1,473$1,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.63	158	51.9%82 W · 76 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Washington State Cougars	31c	1,411$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.57	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed San Francisco Dons	76c	1,178$895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.7	464	46.8%217 W · 247 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Washington State Cougars	39c	1,075$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.33	316	46.8%148 W · 168 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Washington State Cougars	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	250	43.2%108 W · 142 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Washington State Cougars	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	137	35%48 W · 89 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb101…5024backed San Francisco Dons	49c	967.99$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.99	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington State Cougars	56c	870.12$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.21	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Washington State Cougars	30c	800$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	100	47%47 W · 53 L	+8.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+24%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed San Francisco Dons	71c	685$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.77	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed San Francisco Dons	70c	569.86$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.86	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Washington State Cougars	32c	560.43$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.47	1,983	26.4%523 W · 1,460 L	-55.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington State Cougars	49c	518.76$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.34	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Dons	58c	447.98$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.7	2,012	50%1,006 W · 1,006 L	+22.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed San Francisco Dons	78c	419.87$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.42	244	44.7%109 W · 135 L	-6.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Dons	68c	418.31$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.86	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0b…cdfcbacked Washington State Cougars	32c	400.31$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed San Francisco Dons	80c	395.59$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.59	190	57.4%109 W · 81 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Washington State Cougars	37c	392$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.46	497	47.5%236 W · 261 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Washington State Cougars	30c	339.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	267	40.8%109 W · 158 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Washington State Cougars	28c	324.22$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.2	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked San Francisco Dons	71c	319$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.51	1,511	47.8%722 W · 789 L	-35.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked San Francisco Dons	76c	310.99$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.4	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Washington State Cougars	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Washington State Cougars	21c	286.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.67	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Washington State Cougars	29c	280$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Washington State Cougars	79c	279.6$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.33	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	73cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Dons	69c	251.9$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.71	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington State Cougars	39c	248.83$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.78	1,493	48.7%727 W · 766 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Washington State Cougars	6c	210.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	160	8.1%13 W · 147 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…4432backed Washington State Cougars	30c	210$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Washington State Cougars	30c	186.86$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.09	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Washington State Cougars	25c	176.58$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	200	24%48 W · 152 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked San Francisco Dons	56c	164.24$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.87	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Washington State Cougars	31c	161.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Francisco Dons	73c	159.49$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.98	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…8728backed Washington State Cougars	24c	157.77$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+67.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Dons	73c	155.95$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.39	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Washington State Cougars	52c	153.24$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.4	480	51%245 W · 235 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked San Francisco Dons	42c	120.36$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.36	72	50%36 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked San Francisco Dons	69c	120$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Washington State Cougars	33c	114.85$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.04	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Washington State Cougars	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	235	44.7%105 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Washington State Cougars	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	1,260	43.3%545 W · 715 L	+34.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked Washington State Cougars	23c	99.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed San Francisco Dons	69c	98$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.38	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed San Francisco Dons	69c	91$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington State Cougars	25c	90.12$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Francisco Dons	69c	87.79$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.93	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Washington State Cougars	70c	86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.2	186	54.3%101 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Washington State Cougars	31c	83.17$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.04	1,003	55.3%555 W · 448 L	+46.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3493…47bcbacked Washington State Cougars	30c	74.87$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked Washington State Cougars	43c	72.44$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	202	34.2%69 W · 133 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Washington State Cougars	29c	71.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed San Francisco Dons	63c	59.97$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.08	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed San Francisco Dons	69c	57$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.67	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Washington State Cougars	22c	52.41$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	299	54.2%162 W · 137 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70c8…006cbacked San Francisco Dons	73c	52.05$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	140	62.9%88 W · 52 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed San Francisco Dons	70c	51.82$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	456	44.5%203 W · 253 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e32…a916backed Washington State Cougars	23c	51.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bf…5d96backed San Francisco Dons	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	65cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Washington State Cougars	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	2,194	33.4%733 W · 1,461 L	+19.2wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed San Francisco Dons	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ad…44febacked San Francisco Dons	70c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Washington State Cougars	32c	41.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Washington State Cougars	38c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	143	39.9%57 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Washington State Cougars	62c	38.78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	369	42.3%156 W · 213 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed San Francisco Dons	69c	33$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.23	350	50.3%176 W · 174 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed San Francisco Dons	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	41	70.7%29 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8339…caa9backed San Francisco Dons	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed San Francisco Dons	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1de6…fdb3backed San Francisco Dons	72c	27.6$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Washington State Cougars	40c	25.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	176	47.2%83 W · 93 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Dons	63c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	139	56.8%79 W · 60 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa22f…604cbacked San Francisco Dons	63c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	40	70%28 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb8…846ebacked Washington State Cougars	74c	24.57$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed San Francisco Dons	69c	22.77$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	974	47.9%467 W · 507 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed68…b870backed San Francisco Dons	70c	21.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc25a…f243backed San Francisco Dons	71c	14.18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.16	37	86.5%32 W · 5 L	+6.0wins	+0.16per pick	70cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Donsthis page
Spread: San Francisco Dons (-5.5)Washington State Cougars won
Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 143.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event