Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c5c83910d7e2941ce7c99e36b3e90de18b5ee3319bd6ad3d4be3bdb26df542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 7,095$3,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,192.33 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 3,046$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.92 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 41c | 2,305$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.24 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Over | 67c | 1,190$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 836.27$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.68 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d93bbacked Over | 66c | 748.53$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 34c | 659.61$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.34 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 76c | 484.55$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 47c | 427$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 18c | 404.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 400.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 79c | 344.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 253.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 79c | 253.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 66c | 234.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 68c | 208.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 22c | 176.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 75c | 167.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…f7f3backed Over | 67c | 147.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 25c | 136.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…32a0backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 78c | 127.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Over | 77c | 95.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 146 | 51.4%75 W · 71 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 33c | 83.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…9ddfbacked Under | 80c | 77.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…2cacbacked Under | 27c | 74.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 75c | 73.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 27c | 72.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 58.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Under | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 54.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 31c | 51.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 33c | 49.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 79c | 34.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 71c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 28.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 47c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…3fa2backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 47c | 21.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 53c | 19.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Over | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Under | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 68c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)Como 1907 won
- Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5)Como 1907 won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 0.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.