Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5fca31049d7b058ad1507b26a25b0a75e706203024478e9e2921a210cf768dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 416.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 4c | 376.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 361.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.55 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 299.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 39c | 294.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 266.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 249.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 245.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 233.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.35 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 228.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 66c | 227.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 77c | 215.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 206.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 74c | 206.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 29c | 171.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 9c | 167.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 69c | 165.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 165.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 152.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 143$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 137.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 126.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 46c | 124.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 121.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 76c | 119.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 62c | 109.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 25c | 103.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 97.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 96.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 38c | 92.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 15c | 85.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 63c | 84.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f81…d417backed No | 58c | 84.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 82.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 82.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 79c | 79.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 76.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 28c | 70.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 70.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 66.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 60c | 58.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 56.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 53.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 52.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 52.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 22c | 51.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…c0d8backed No | 77c | 50.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 54c | 49.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 56c | 49.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 40.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 42c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 43c | 27.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 57c | 20.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 19.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 18.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…e577backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 16.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 78c | 15.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.