TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baezof Carabelli, Baez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Baez72c66,737$48,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,629.5627063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Carabelli22c25,387$5,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,655.828,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Baez68c16,867$11,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,329.452,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Carabelli36c12,189$4,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,387.9976546.8%358 W · 407 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Carabelli36c10,573$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.6621338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Carabelli38c8,493$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.3476140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Carabelli34c6,581$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.752,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Baez68c6,313$4,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.172,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Carabelli37c5,295$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95928444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf0…df85backed Carabelli8c5,066$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.133125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Baez62c4,839$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.715860.3%35 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli0c4,772$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.932,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Carabelli15c4,598$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.151,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Carabelli10c3,763$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.3472132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Carabelli13c3,539$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.046,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Carabelli31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Carabelli36c2,856$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.161,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Baez69c2,236$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.2955646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Carabelli57c2,184$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.631,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Carabelli26c2,048$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.1497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Carabelli8c1,875$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509757.9%77 W · 898 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Baez65c1,780$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.35853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Carabelli36c1,510$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.631332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Carabelli19c1,244$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1265647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Baez64c1,136$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.751,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…ee60backed Carabelli57c1,132$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6455628.6%16 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Carabelli57c1,103$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.5318663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Carabelli35c1,024$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.531,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Carabelli26c1,017$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.541,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Carabelli36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3609245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Baez66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3409567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Baez65c966.6$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.542,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Carabelli36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Baez49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.331,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Baez69c786.06$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.694658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Baez65c774.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.1114475%108 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Carabelli17c744.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13028322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Carabelli36c740$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.47,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Carabelli28c725.74$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2237339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Baez62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26642141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Carabelli42c700$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3749632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Carabelli36c629.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7987251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Carabelli34c590.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20065651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Baez72c513.89$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8916665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c6b…e258backed Carabelli2c501.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Baez64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18018548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd751…58bdbacked Baez55c490.91$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.911250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Baez62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8778452.9%415 W · 369 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Carabelli51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9923454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Baez62c385$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Carabelli34c376.18$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.831,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Carabelli36c350$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Carabelli37c328.41$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.511,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Baez64c325.8$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.293554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9494…308abacked Carabelli34c295.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Baez62c251.34$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5122747.6%108 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Carabelli31c251.1$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7849143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb8…56ecbacked Baez61c246.61$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6111256.3%63 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Carabelli27c245$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Baez64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3869350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Baez75c214.93$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.521172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Carabelli48c211.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.512951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Baez63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7420261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Carabelli37c191$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.671,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bb…ea80backed Baez64c165$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.952347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3578…f163backed Baez73c164.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3839872.4%288 W · 110 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eef…dc2ebacked Baez68c160$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.62281.8%18 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Baez63c159.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.260055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Carabelli37c156.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1470148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d7…42c1backed Carabelli47c156.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.393435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Carabelli36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1416046.9%75 W · 85 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Carabelli55c147$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.631153.1%165 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Baez67c142.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9514949.7%74 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Carabelli30c140$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210036%36 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Carabelli36c139.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.425237.3%94 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Baez68c139.09$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.091283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Carabelli36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Carabelli20c132.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Baez46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4313356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4d…dfdbbacked Carabelli38c118.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452528%7 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe6…61bdbacked Baez71c114.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2211347.8%54 W · 59 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Carabelli37c113.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.358637.2%32 W · 54 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Carabelli26c113.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.491752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Baez65c110$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.558753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Carabelli11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d72…33f7backed Baez64c104$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c5…7715backed Baez47c102$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed Carabelli39c100.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.77356.2%41 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Carabelli37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Baez59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Baez63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Carabelli25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Carabelli41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Carabelli28c99.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.053,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Baez61c98.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0921758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli29c92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.511,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Carabelli36c90.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0213138.9%51 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Baez68c87.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.252,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Baez69c87.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.052,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Baez61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9794060.6%570 W · 370 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.