Tennis · resolved market
Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb683924201798050195b1952e924ecfccc6c533f806bb400b730230033ba7c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baezof Carabelli, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Baez | 72c | 66,737$48,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,629.56 | 270 | 63.7%172 W · 98 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Carabelli | 22c | 25,387$5,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.82 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Baez | 68c | 16,867$11,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,329.45 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Carabelli | 36c | 12,189$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.99 | 765 | 46.8%358 W · 407 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Carabelli | 36c | 10,573$3,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.66 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Carabelli | 38c | 8,493$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.34 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Carabelli | 34c | 6,581$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.75 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Baez | 68c | 6,313$4,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.17 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Carabelli | 37c | 5,295$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Carabelli | 8c | 5,066$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.13 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Baez | 62c | 4,839$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.71 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 0c | 4,772$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Carabelli | 15c | 4,598$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.15 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Carabelli | 10c | 3,763$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.34 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Carabelli | 13c | 3,539$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.04 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Carabelli | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Carabelli | 36c | 2,856$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.16 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Baez | 69c | 2,236$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.29 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Carabelli | 57c | 2,184$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.63 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Carabelli | 26c | 2,048$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.14 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Carabelli | 8c | 1,875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…d25fbacked Baez | 65c | 1,780$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.3 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Carabelli | 36c | 1,510$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.6 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Carabelli | 19c | 1,244$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Baez | 64c | 1,136$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.75 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…ee60backed Carabelli | 57c | 1,132$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Carabelli | 57c | 1,103$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.53 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Carabelli | 35c | 1,024$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.53 | 1,683 | 50.6%851 W · 832 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Carabelli | 26c | 1,017$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.54 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Carabelli | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Baez | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Baez | 65c | 966.6$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Carabelli | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Baez | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 1,125 | 42.8%482 W · 643 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…b910backed Baez | 69c | 786.06$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.69 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Baez | 65c | 774.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.11 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Carabelli | 17c | 744.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carabelli | 36c | 740$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Carabelli | 28c | 725.74$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.22 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Baez | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Carabelli | 42c | 700$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Carabelli | 36c | 629.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Carabelli | 34c | 590.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…6040backed Baez | 72c | 513.89$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…e258backed Carabelli | 2c | 501.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Baez | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…58bdbacked Baez | 55c | 490.91$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Baez | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Carabelli | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Baez | 62c | 385$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Carabelli | 34c | 376.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 1,853 | 48.4%897 W · 956 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Carabelli | 36c | 350$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Carabelli | 37c | 328.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…2e69backed Baez | 64c | 325.8$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Carabelli | 34c | 295.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Baez | 62c | 251.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Carabelli | 31c | 251.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…56ecbacked Baez | 61c | 246.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Carabelli | 27c | 245$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Baez | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Baez | 75c | 214.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Carabelli | 48c | 211.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Baez | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 202 | 61.4%124 W · 78 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Carabelli | 37c | 191$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…ea80backed Baez | 64c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Baez | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…dc2ebacked Baez | 68c | 160$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baez | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Carabelli | 37c | 156.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Carabelli | 47c | 156.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Carabelli | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Carabelli | 55c | 147$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Baez | 67c | 142.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Carabelli | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Carabelli | 36c | 139.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Baez | 68c | 139.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Carabelli | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Carabelli | 20c | 132.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Baez | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…dfdbbacked Carabelli | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…61bdbacked Baez | 71c | 114.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Carabelli | 37c | 113.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Carabelli | 26c | 113.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…908abacked Baez | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 587 | 53.7%315 W · 272 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Carabelli | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…33f7backed Baez | 64c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…7715backed Baez | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f2…e0c9backed Carabelli | 39c | 100.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…761abacked Carabelli | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Baez | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Baez | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Carabelli | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Carabelli | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Carabelli | 28c | 99.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Baez | 61c | 98.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 217 | 58.1%126 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Carabelli | 36c | 90.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baez | 68c | 87.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Baez | 69c | 87.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Baez | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baezthis page
- Carabelli vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Carabelli vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Carabelli vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Carabelli vs BaezBaez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.