TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Naomi Osaka
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$374,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,673 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Naomi Osaka7c50,281$3,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,687.972,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Naomi Osaka6c32,043$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.512,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84dc…008ebacked Naomi Osaka8c16,529$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.322213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Naomi Osaka10c14,297$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Naomi Osaka15c12,794$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.062927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+182.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Naomi Osaka15c7,527$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.012360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Naomi Osaka6c7,128$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9911832.2%38 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Naomi Osaka17c6,284$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.685949.2%29 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Naomi Osaka5c6,007$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3380938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Naomi Osaka16c5,700$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.9912322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf945…7eb1backed Naomi Osaka15c4,755$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.24439.3%4 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Naomi Osaka16c4,389$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.546,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Naomi Osaka8c4,163$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Naomi Osaka1c4,090$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.592550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Naomi Osaka17c4,002$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70024557.6%141 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Naomi Osaka16c3,332$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.086,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Naomi Osaka16c3,187$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.871050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Naomi Osaka15c2,314$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.431,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Naomi Osaka1c2,111$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.221,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0e…62f0backed Naomi Osaka5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Naomi Osaka16c1,997$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.642839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Naomi Osaka16c1,971$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4297141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Naomi Osaka16c1,704$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8327231.3%85 W · 187 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Naomi Osaka15c1,669$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2813135.9%47 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Naomi Osaka7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Naomi Osaka15c1,389$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.757,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Naomi Osaka5c1,370$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6667836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Naomi Osaka15c1,294$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1295846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Naomi Osaka8c1,261$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.462534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5f…7a4ebacked Naomi Osaka15c1,134$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.077343.8%32 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Naomi Osaka17c1,099$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1120336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Naomi Osaka16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Naomi Osaka16c836.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8565849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Naomi Osaka16c741$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.561,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Naomi Osaka15c699.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10546932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ae…85ccbacked Naomi Osaka3c693$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35721.1%12 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…434ebacked Naomi Osaka15c679.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.871926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Naomi Osaka14c668.49$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9913444%59 W · 75 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Naomi Osaka16c625.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Naomi Osaka17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Naomi Osaka16c530.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.881,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Naomi Osaka16c500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Naomi Osaka16c439$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.241,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Naomi Osaka15c412.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0443042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Naomi Osaka17c353.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022949.8%114 W · 115 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Naomi Osaka9c336.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.87,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Naomi Osaka15c333.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5066452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Naomi Osaka16c317.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.771,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Naomi Osaka16c315.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.079,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Naomi Osaka16c297$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3473745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Naomi Osaka16c287.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Naomi Osaka8c237$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.964632.6%15 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Naomi Osaka16c218.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355619.6%11 W · 45 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-54%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Naomi Osaka16c218$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0899044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41f…6100backed Naomi Osaka10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.711234.8%39 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Naomi Osaka16c197$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.951,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Naomi Osaka17c194.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3372542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Naomi Osaka10c189.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.783,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795f…fbdabacked Naomi Osaka12c182.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8511417.5%20 W · 94 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Naomi Osaka17c176.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Naomi Osaka17c174.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7218133.1%60 W · 121 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Naomi Osaka17c172.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2443242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Naomi Osaka16c165.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Naomi Osaka16c159.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…3fe7backed Naomi Osaka16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Naomi Osaka17c150.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533163.7%211 W · 120 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1855…32bcbacked Naomi Osaka9c141.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ff…6672backed Naomi Osaka16c137.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215512.9%20 W · 135 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Naomi Osaka16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Naomi Osaka17c120.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Naomi Osaka16c100.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.134060%24 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+46.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Naomi Osaka16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165032%16 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38df…4609backed Naomi Osaka15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Naomi Osaka15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Naomi Osaka15c97.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.943,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Naomi Osaka13c93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8487…a68bbacked Naomi Osaka16c93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Naomi Osaka15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Naomi Osaka16c79.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7231753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb43e…fecfbacked Naomi Osaka17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Naomi Osaka16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032450.9%165 W · 159 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Aryna Sabalenka80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621072.4%152 W · 58 L+0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Aryna Sabalenka80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.879052.9%418 W · 372 L+24.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Aryna Sabalenka80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.847649.6%236 W · 240 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.