Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76a0949c48005944ddab29198e4bbc8ea84e97148c361f01b95645c48eb2f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 54c | 4,629$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 41c | 918.53$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.85 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 882$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 37c | 841.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 44c | 753.57$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.45 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 42c | 689.78$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.55 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 46c | 657.85$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.03 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 629.9$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 578.24$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 555.32$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 490.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 448.39$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 442.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 439.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 375.55$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 55c | 370.95$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 354.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 78c | 310$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 283.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 280.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 270.45$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 265.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 262.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 258.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 49c | 249$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 246.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 243.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 239.24$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 55c | 205$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 155.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 16c | 154.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 47c | 146.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 42c | 144.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 47c | 141.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 134.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 39c | 134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 62c | 129.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 129$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 127$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 49c | 126.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 124.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 123.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 119$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 115.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 45c | 115.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 51c | 111.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 108.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 105.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 58c | 104.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 50c | 87.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 49c | 81.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 80.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 80.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 77.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 69.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 67.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 65.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 64.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 48c | 63.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…d45fbacked No | 46c | 62.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 76c | 60.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 63c | 59.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 53c | 58.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Yes | 49c | 56.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 53c | 55.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 54.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 52.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 65c | 51.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…8bcbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.