Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100cd54f9180fadb9eecbe39fb9e57651b03e971d442046f339b91dad3768595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 28c | 1,404$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.11 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,266$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.79 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,159$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 26c | 679.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 629.9$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 507$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 481.28$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 471.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 393.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 344.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 291.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 259.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 258.47$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 246.53$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 212.68$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 205$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 69c | 200.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 198$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 191.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 11c | 177.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 26c | 176$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 173.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 11c | 165.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 164.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 67c | 160.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 37c | 155.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 23c | 155.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 24c | 147.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 147$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 30c | 144.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 24c | 143.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 138.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 110.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 109.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 19c | 107.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 24c | 90.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed No | 71c | 87.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes | 25c | 84.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…8959backed Yes | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 24c | 83.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 35c | 81.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 23c | 81.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 79.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 32c | 78.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 78.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…957fbacked No | 72c | 77.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 76.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 69.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 28c | 68.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 32c | 66.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 66.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 75c | 65.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 63.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 71c | 61.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 61.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 59.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 58.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 57.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 56.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 52.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 52.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 52.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 50.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 50.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 49.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 48.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked No | 67c | 48.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 48.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 47.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 47.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 25c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 41.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed No | 72c | 39.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.