TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes28c1,404$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.117630.3%23 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes31c1,266$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.7931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes22c1,159$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.354,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes26c679.54$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c629.9$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes27c507$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.821,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c481.28$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.254,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes23c471.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c393.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c344.81$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.044,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c291.7$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.094,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes27c259.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.61,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No72c258.47$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.11,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c246.53$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No74c212.68$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.052,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c205$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe8…6e25backed No69c200.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.62862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c198$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No78c191.07$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0324370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes11c177.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.19960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes26c176$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No80c173.79$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.082,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes11c165.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.218636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes23c164.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No67c160.22$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes37c155.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4512941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed Yes23c155.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.143040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…b997backed Yes24c147.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.942725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes22c147$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.051,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes30c144.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8213838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…39d3backed Yes24c143.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.172416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c138.52$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No68c110.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.32,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c109.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes19c107.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes37c102$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c91$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x427a…4e18backed Yes24c90.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.197229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed No71c87.64$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.691266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes25c84.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e5…8959backed Yes12c83.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes24c83.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes35c81.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes23c81.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.981,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c79.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.279,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Yes32c78.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No78c78.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce2…957fbacked No72c77.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No72c76.04$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.045,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No70c69.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes28c68.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4915032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes32c66.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4619947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No72c66.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes30c66.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No75c65.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.415868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No67c64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.121,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No71c63.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No71c61.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1335344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c61.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c59.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.454,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No78c58.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.652,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No70c57.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes21c56.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.917536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.951,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.89566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes22c54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.884,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c52.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.161,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No80c52.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.634,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes19c52.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes23c50.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes32c50.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.211,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717f…3fb1backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4222744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f84…f1c4backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c49.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.052,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No76c48.83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0493…8d1cbacked No67c48.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No67c48.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9625954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No75c47.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No72c47.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.42,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes25c42.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes26c41.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.835325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…4e61backed No72c39.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.171361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.