Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb85c68f81655999ae175c86f9b8223769e4e794b5b1ef8fd7b91047e3be6cb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 23c | 1,968$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.92 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 949.35$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 628.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 496.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.41 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 11c | 484.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 455.53$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 445.42$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 425.01$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 418.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 414.36$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 6c | 401.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 25c | 394.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 320.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 309$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 300.71$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 72c | 292.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 60c | 292.14$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 230$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 28c | 228.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 8c | 213.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 30c | 144$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 132.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 123.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 122.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 111.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 107.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 107.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 17c | 102.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 31c | 100.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 65c | 89.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 86.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 85.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 28c | 78.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 69.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 29c | 57.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 56.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 33c | 54.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 30c | 53.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 52.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 47.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 22c | 45.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 65c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…1fffbacked Yes | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 35c | 33.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 31.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…6f74backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 63c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 63c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.