Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89d10f17314a5aef121dd1a59933b84f291b004efc42b247726f71dd5f05e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,010$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.71 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 705.16$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.74 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 24c | 526.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 491.85$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 453.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 42c | 359.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.01 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 291.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 278$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 66c | 263.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 248.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 42c | 241.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 42c | 239.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 223.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 208.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 35c | 206.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 205.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 188.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 58c | 172.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 42c | 171.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 168.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 163.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 134.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 60c | 132.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 124.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 123.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 113.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 104.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 102.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 31c | 100.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 99.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 94.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 92.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 91.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 91.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 85.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 85.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 84.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 78c | 77.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 74.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 70c | 71.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 66.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 64.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 59.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 47.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 45.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 41.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…a6d1backed No | 76c | 39.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…9009backed No | 78c | 38.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…f549backed Yes | 46c | 38.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 37.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 55c | 36.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 43c | 35.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 45c | 34.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.