World Politics · resolved market
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86618f0e3e26d16e5abd848af319dd750dba3271684a2912268bb917a8f9953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567a…f5f4backed Yes | 8c | 11,105$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…12b6backed Yes | 11c | 9,552$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +125%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,806$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.37 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…75c9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 16c | 4,633$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.06 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,280$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…a504backed Yes | 5c | 4,102$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,803$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9b…7be4backed Yes | 7c | 2,623$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…aa20backed Yes | 18c | 2,575$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e5…7127backed Yes | 4c | 2,550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 20c | 1,991$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.04 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 5c | 1,881$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,825$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…805ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,643$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…fd17backed Yes | 9c | 1,616$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 11c | 1,169$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…9ea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…090cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…3cc8backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…facbbacked Yes | 18c | 895.35$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…5bbebacked Yes | 19c | 752.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 9c | 574.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 21c | 550.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 9c | 534.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 501.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…2c0ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 455.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 449.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 400.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…742dbacked Yes | 9c | 399.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…b8e4backed Yes | 10c | 347.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ba…0598backed Yes | 12c | 336.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 9c | 332.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 319.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…48f9backed Yes | 19c | 308.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…d3b0backed Yes | 5c | 297.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…d223backed Yes | 5c | 284.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…e9bebacked Yes | 24c | 254.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed Yes | 76c | 235$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes | 11c | 203.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 201.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 10c | 197.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…e5e4backed Yes | 14c | 176.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 13c | 176.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…3df2backed Yes | 12c | 168.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 9c | 158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…1296backed Yes | 11c | 147.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…ba28backed Yes | 20c | 143.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 120.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…e48ebacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e1e3backed Yes | 14c | 119.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 117.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…19a4backed Yes | 12c | 109.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 10cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked Yes | 14c | 102.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…718cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7807backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 78.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 70.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…9ab8backed Yes | 35c | 56.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +8.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 80c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Song Gi-heon win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.