TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b20…bc23backed No61c4,212$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.981165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes36c2,917$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.11,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes39c957.29$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.822,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes40c708.69$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6314752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes38c532.9$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.925933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No58c516.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c470.4$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.2810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c419.25$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.828,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes42c359.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.151,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c323.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c309.52$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.522,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes43c301$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5786949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…6805backed Yes43c297.3$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.461338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96b…4404backed Yes43c284.57$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c272.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes45c269.61$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.291,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Yes42c260.26$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.928652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No50c257.75$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed Yes45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.520347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed Yes45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.512437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes42c223.82$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.932,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1282330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11642253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c164$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.324,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c120.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes35c119.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0524942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c110$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c104$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.52,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes51c103.59$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.331,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes50c101.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4910936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5990555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5810133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5781855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes40c95.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.621,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c93.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd41…392bbacked Yes45c90.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.751942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…5866backed Yes45c90.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.751844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes43c86.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c86$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes39c83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.964,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes39c81.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c81.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c80.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.849,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No25c80.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes42c76.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4359144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e9…9a18backed Yes45c75.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.54753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes42c72.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1760550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes69c72.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No26c71.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5824262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No21c71.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes30c66.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2932738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes25c64.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.32,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6436…0fbbbacked Yes42c62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes61c60.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.228142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No45c57.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.821,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7834…f823backed Yes43c53.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.519071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2916453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes36c49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes41c47.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.111,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes43c47.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c46.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.424,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c41.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes44c40.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6942547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2216148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2214745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes26c39.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1921352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes79c39.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.222441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes59c38.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.822,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes76c31.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.761,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c31.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8878663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes32c31.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.443,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked Yes71c30.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.795354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed Yes47c30.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.323966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes43c30.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes62c30.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.322,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec34…b109backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.13240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No46c28.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.252,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes49c25.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No55c24.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.759066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes56c24.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes49c24.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.315940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes61c22.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.437540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No64c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes74c20.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.342552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No63c20.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.613554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83826.3%10 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d36…8607backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.