Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb948873a2f39160d7061f9cc71a62ec29491d2d684642d4228f7c0c6a60a697b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 50c | 396.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 51c | 224.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 187.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 179.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 46c | 177.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 158.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 43c | 152.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Yes | 40c | 141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 51c | 140.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 129.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 117.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 61c | 116.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 108.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 53c | 107.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 106.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 99.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 50c | 98.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 51c | 97.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 95.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 40c | 95.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 53c | 93.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 52c | 91.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 32c | 90.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 41c | 88.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 87.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 83.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 35c | 83.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 43c | 81.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 41c | 80.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 53c | 78.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…48eebacked Yes | 59c | 71.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 37c | 69.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 50c | 68.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 46c | 66.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 58c | 66.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 64.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 63.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 32c | 60.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 58.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 62c | 56.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 53.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 57c | 52.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…6470backed Yes | 40c | 48.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 44.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00b…373ebacked Yes | 55c | 43.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 48c | 43.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 65c | 42.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 45c | 42.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…1b8cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 52c | 39.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 63c | 38.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 38.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 54c | 37.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa546…603dbacked Yes | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 49c | 36.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 35.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 35.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 33c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 33.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 34c | 29.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 51c | 25.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 23.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 54c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.