Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96185c586e0b7733638aa74d4ffec870096698a901b432d1636c13e78ceb9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Alcaraz, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 30c | 3,277$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.22 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Zverev | 33c | 3,144$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…8bb4backed Alcaraz | 71c | 3,076$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alcaraz | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1,286 | 56.8%731 W · 555 L | -16.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Zverev | 28c | 2,484$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.35 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zverev | 29c | 2,089$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.16 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.96 | 1,448 | 48.8%707 W · 741 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Zverev | 32c | 1,875$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Alcaraz | 71c | 1,062$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.48 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Alcaraz | 70c | 1,044$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.29 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Alcaraz | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Zverev | 29c | 903.14$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.98 | 253 | 34.4%87 W · 166 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Zverev | 30c | 853.24$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.8 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Alcaraz | 3c | 830.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Alcaraz | 67c | 747.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Alcaraz | 70c | 709.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Zverev | 31c | 671.43$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Zverev | 28c | 585.87$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.82 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9b8cbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Zverev | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Zverev | 30c | 333.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.37 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Zverev | 33c | 333.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Zverev | 31c | 330$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked Alcaraz | 71c | 310$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Zverev | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 377 | 44.3%167 W · 210 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Alcaraz | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Zverev | 26c | 295$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Alcaraz | 69c | 199.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…8fd2backed Alcaraz | 70c | 194.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Zverev | 29c | 170$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Alcaraz | 68c | 157.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…abaabacked Alcaraz | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…be5fbacked Zverev | 32c | 136.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Alcaraz | 73c | 136.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Zverev | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…66f3backed Alcaraz | 68c | 106$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Alcaraz | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 94.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Alcaraz | 67c | 83.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Zverev | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zverev | 29c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Zverev | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Zverev | 34c | 58.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz | 72c | 50.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…8cccbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Alcaraz | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 202 | 61.4%124 W · 78 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Alcaraz | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Alcaraz | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alcaraz | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Alcaraz | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…dac9backed Alcaraz | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Alcaraz | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Alcaraz | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs ZverevAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)Zverev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.