Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256566f0e2630d725493be98f3654dbd799dd1269a2f796c5cd81125df1a52fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 4,371$3,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.37 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9607backed Zverev | 29c | 3,452$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Alcaraz | 69c | 3,214$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.73 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Zverev | 30c | 2,342$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Alcaraz | 76c | 1,583$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 29c | 1,406$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.2 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Zverev | 23c | 1,381$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.74 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Zverev | 25c | 1,148$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.88 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Alcaraz | 70c | 858.77$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.78 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Alcaraz | 73c | 839.91$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Zverev | 34c | 798.64$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.84 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Zverev | 30c | 787.47$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.89 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zverev | 31c | 779.41$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…6a4ebacked Alcaraz | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Zverev | 26c | 477.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 259 | 57.5%149 W · 110 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Alcaraz | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Zverev | 32c | 298.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zverev | 26c | 275.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Alcaraz | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5804…dc41backed Alcaraz | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Alcaraz | 73c | 245.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Zverev | 32c | 216.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Zverev | 27c | 189.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 189.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zverev | 37c | 160.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alcaraz | 69c | 156.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Zverev | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Zverev | 31c | 137.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Alcaraz | 73c | 136.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…3757backed Zverev | 33c | 119.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Zverev | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Alcaraz | 75c | 105.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Zverev | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Alcaraz | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…27a7backed Alcaraz | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Zverev | 39c | 99.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Zverev | 40c | 82.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 271 | 32.1%87 W · 184 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Zverev | 25c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Zverev | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…6068backed Alcaraz | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Zverev | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Alcaraz | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Zverev | 30c | 59.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zverev | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…ec8dbacked Alcaraz | 66c | 53.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Zverev | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Zverev | 37c | 44.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Alcaraz | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Zverev | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aef…a3e1backed Zverev | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…973dbacked Alcaraz | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…1027backed Alcaraz | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Zverev | 38c | 26.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Alcaraz | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Alcaraz | 71c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Alcaraz | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 176 | 62.5%110 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e02…6c4abacked Alcaraz | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Alcaraz | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.6wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Zverevthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)Zverev won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)Zverev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.