TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Shopify Rebellion, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Shopify Rebellion61c45,758$27,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,884.3253750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x890b…1979backed Shopify Rebellion60c35,180$21,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,072.093852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Disguised31c27,000$8,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,276.056556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Disguised39c25,200$9,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8289435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed Disguised2c23,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44012717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Disguised40c16,858$6,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,742.7948149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Disguised29c16,319$4,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,808.511,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed Shopify Rebellion74c14,840$10,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,906.0312160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Disguised38c14,803$5,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,628.328146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Disguised39c11,111$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,333.291,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Disguised38c10,955$4,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16357246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Disguised29c10,165$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.481,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Disguised11c10,124$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.4630546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Shopify Rebellion62c9,677$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.4257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Shopify Rebellion59c6,093$3,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,511.681,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Disguised40c4,613$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.092657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion62c4,000$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Shopify Rebellion74c3,681$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.831,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x847f…459ebacked Disguised40c3,440$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3762236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Disguised33c3,220$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.9931337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067e…baafbacked Disguised1c2,880$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4610957.8%63 W · 46 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Disguised41c2,800$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.4282953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Disguised39c2,739$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.922,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Shopify Rebellion54c2,168$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.1763546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Disguised10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Disguised46c1,894$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.4425447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Disguised43c1,740$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.181,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Disguised29c1,718$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4247838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7428…1ca3backed Shopify Rebellion60c1,655$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.54856.3%27 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Disguised13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19514753.1%78 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Disguised2c1,450$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7566116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Shopify Rebellion61c1,362$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.0519748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Shopify Rebellion66c1,345$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.771,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed Disguised4c1,340$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.921175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Disguised2c1,308$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.721,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Disguised40c1,275$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5109040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e81…8b41backed Disguised19c1,249$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2610517.1%18 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Shopify Rebellion75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30058559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Shopify Rebellion75c1,198$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4566559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Disguised43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Shopify Rebellion54c1,110$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.6935058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Shopify Rebellion55c1,097$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.6534255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Shopify Rebellion61c1,092$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.42944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Shopify Rebellion54c1,085$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1534658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Shopify Rebellion55c1,085$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.7733857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Shopify Rebellion62c1,078$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.8739162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d7…135bbacked Disguised13c1,062$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Shopify Rebellion59c1,018$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7614136.9%52 W · 89 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Disguised43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43029447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Disguised41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41017439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked Shopify Rebellion63c856.08$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31712054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Disguised43c850$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.51,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Shopify Rebellion57c833.79$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.531,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shopify Rebellion72c804.2$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.261,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Shopify Rebellion56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3521,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Shopify Rebellion69c800$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2473852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Disguised44c750$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33031849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe100…34e1backed Disguised42c715.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006238.7%24 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Shopify Rebellion54c712.58$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.7935659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4641…26bebacked Shopify Rebellion71c708.78$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.092580%20 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+33.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Disguised38c700$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2662,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed Shopify Rebellion59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2879360.2%56 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Shopify Rebellion75c635.61$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.962158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Shopify Rebellion60c615$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24625660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Disguised42c580.19$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.681,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Disguised46c537$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5954934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Disguised43c516.58$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7969741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Disguised38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19022746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed Shopify Rebellion56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2203357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x068d…2678backed Disguised9c480.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.910933%36 W · 73 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Disguised40c470$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.695048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Disguised43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Disguised31c417.74$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.142,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Disguised24c408.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10071057%405 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf56d…c3d9backed Disguised12c408.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Shopify Rebellion63c407$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5942851.2%219 W · 209 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Shopify Rebellion74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.411,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcfe…4a37backed Disguised40c400.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16015349%75 W · 78 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e5…d607backed Shopify Rebellion62c397.8$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.165151%26 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Shopify Rebellion78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.621,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b7…c49bbacked Disguised40c378.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15016253.7%87 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x595e…184cbacked Disguised12c347.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.684936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Disguised20c343.56$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9863742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5cd8backed Shopify Rebellion61c341$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Shopify Rebellion59c339.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3522462.1%139 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Shopify Rebellion60c329.98$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2936155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Disguised45c323.64$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6496048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Shopify Rebellion60c320$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12885554.7%468 W · 387 L+33.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Disguised45c311.26$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba9…1a61backed Shopify Rebellion59c300$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.035437%20 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Shopify Rebellion61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed Disguised7c285.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055110.3%57 W · 494 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Shopify Rebellion56c280$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.218061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Shopify Rebellion60c273.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.241,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed Shopify Rebellion61c265.67$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.615269.2%36 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa859…48b9backed Shopify Rebellion62c265.24$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.482138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Shopify Rebellion61c240.66$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6679864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Shopify Rebellion60c229.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.535045.1%158 W · 192 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shopify Rebellion73c218.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.862,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.