TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Shopify Rebellion, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,891 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked Disguised43c44,666$19,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,253.1196048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Shopify Rebellion57c40,435$23,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,387.2153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Disguised45c18,680$8,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,361.8254134.8%188 W · 353 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Shopify Rebellion55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50043442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised45c5,959$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,681.671,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Disguised44c4,853$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.3813846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked Shopify Rebellion55c3,640$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6388060%48 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed Shopify Rebellion73c3,587$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.5912160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Disguised30c3,060$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.451,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Shopify Rebellion55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3503,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Disguised47c2,695$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.041,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Shopify Rebellion57c2,187$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.6264749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Shopify Rebellion55c2,123$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.4440933.7%138 W · 271 L-29.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Disguised9c1,904$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1726950.9%137 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Shopify Rebellion79c1,770$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.61,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shopify Rebellion63c1,611$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.142,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Shopify Rebellion56c1,563$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.6962151.4%319 W · 302 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised45c1,550$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.51,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Disguised19c1,421$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.991,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Shopify Rebellion56c1,300$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57282454.9%452 W · 372 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885b…a30dbacked Shopify Rebellion80c1,225$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.14930.6%15 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Disguised43c1,125$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.451,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shopify Rebellion68c1,018$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.541,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa1…6340backed Disguised50c963.15$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.291926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Disguised37c900$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5311657.8%67 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Shopify Rebellion57c770.71$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4317…fc9bbacked Shopify Rebellion55c715.21$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.843100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+420.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa11…e3c0backed Shopify Rebellion55c712.96$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.837335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shopify Rebellion53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.972,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Shopify Rebellion55c687.99$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.139651%202 W · 194 L+1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed Disguised44c569.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.412548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Disguised44c560.11$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1337343.4%162 W · 211 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Disguised20c560$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Shopify Rebellion57c503.69$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.448839.8%35 W · 53 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Shopify Rebellion60c500.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3322462.1%139 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Disguised20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…e56cbacked Disguised21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Shopify Rebellion56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2205246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Shopify Rebellion56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22094948.5%460 W · 489 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Shopify Rebellion55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22535346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Shopify Rebellion56c497.03$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.4623152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Disguised28c492.42$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc648…dcc2backed Disguised44c447$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6822238.7%86 W · 136 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shopify Rebellion58c444.1$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.712,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Shopify Rebellion55c429.93$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.471,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Disguised30c414.26$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.669741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Shopify Rebellion55c405.42$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4438157.5%219 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Shopify Rebellion56c390.17$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.972,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Shopify Rebellion55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6446560%279 W · 186 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Shopify Rebellion55c345.45$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4534860.9%212 W · 136 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked Shopify Rebellion63c330.3$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.316358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Disguised38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11417738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Shopify Rebellion56c282.96$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.534448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Disguised39c270.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1897254.3%528 W · 444 L+46.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Shopify Rebellion62c267$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1938963%245 W · 144 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shopify Rebellion57c262.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.465063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Disguised43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.55147.1%24 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31ec…7fcabacked Disguised6c242.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55339.1%3 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Disguised44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036246.4%168 W · 194 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Disguised44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009649%47 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Disguised45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022741%93 W · 134 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Disguised46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016044.4%71 W · 89 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Shopify Rebellion66c214.01$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.292,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Disguised43c208$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8974637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Shopify Rebellion50c204.77$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.051,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Disguised43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8625332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x068d…2678backed Disguised5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010933%36 W · 73 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Disguised43c198.08$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1731849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Disguised40c197$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7928938.4%111 W · 178 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Shopify Rebellion56c195.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0974949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Shopify Rebellion56c189$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1634756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Shopify Rebellion55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8251552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Disguised48c167.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.727751.9%40 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Disguised31c167.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.481,81839.9%726 W · 1,092 L-59.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Disguised45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706844.1%30 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Shopify Rebellion56c142$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4816238.9%63 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed Shopify Rebellion34c132.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.359233.7%31 W · 61 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+48.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed Disguised44c130.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4553532.3%173 W · 362 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Shopify Rebellion56c127.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2766845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Shopify Rebellion56c127$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1530146.2%139 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Shopify Rebellion58c122.68$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.131,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Shopify Rebellion55c121.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6227257%155 W · 117 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1b…9876backed Shopify Rebellion54c121.15$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Shopify Rebellion52c119$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3adf…9c7bbacked Shopify Rebellion55c116.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.368565.9%56 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ca…b8bebacked Shopify Rebellion80c115$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311656.9%66 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Disguised22c108.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5855428.7%159 W · 395 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Shopify Rebellion54c103.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.731,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2da4…31bfbacked Shopify Rebellion53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…1cf3backed Shopify Rebellion55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4511850.8%60 W · 58 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Shopify Rebellion55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4538851.3%199 W · 189 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed Shopify Rebellion57c98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1444750.6%226 W · 221 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Shopify Rebellion54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.416251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fc…fec7backed Shopify Rebellion64c89.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4415253.9%82 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Disguised29c82.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00b…eae1backed Shopify Rebellion63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.373737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff85…e923backed Shopify Rebellion80c75.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.059339.8%37 W · 56 L-10.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Shopify Rebellion56c70.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1239652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87e…cbc2backed Disguised44c69.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Shopify Rebellion58c68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5612543.2%54 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.