Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b884ab2dc73235ae1defa3ed5271faa0e9ead9843c261e961b0543592b3eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb55f…6fd1backed Yes | 27c | 10,001$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…46b3backed No | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…4ae7backed Yes | 27c | 9,995$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc523…0db2backed No | 73c | 9,995$7,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 34c | 1,998$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.17 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 65c | 1,027$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 74c | 900.23$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 894.13$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Yes | 27c | 848.15$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 73c | 816$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 60c | 654.97$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…4fabbacked Yes | 66c | 510.58$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 27c | 365.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…dbdebacked Yes | 27c | 311$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b3…4297backed No | 73c | 311$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 310.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 73c | 299.98$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 286.08$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 26c | 278.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 63c | 272.84$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 27c | 259.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 7c | 252.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 26c | 249.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…59c9backed Yes | 27c | 239.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…ced0backed Yes | 27c | 227.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 9c | 161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 26c | 148.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1b…b5fabacked No | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…4485backed Yes | 27c | 116$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed No | 43c | 111$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…30e8backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 27c | 94.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked No | 43c | 94.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 35c | 91.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…274dbacked No | 75c | 83.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +159%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…9e51backed No | 74c | 82.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba4…f493backed No | 74c | 82.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…956ebacked No | 76c | 77.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…b47dbacked No | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…fddebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…040bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…b868backed No | 74c | 72.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 28c | 72.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…3d1cbacked No | 75c | 70.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 66c | 68.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e0…676fbacked No | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…4979backed Yes | 28c | 62.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 74c | 54.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…e72dbacked No | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 27c | 52.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…a6a6backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 70c | 43.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…787fbacked No | 74c | 41.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…fef3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…f2f4backed Yes | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed75…8b87backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8b…be28backed No | 71c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…de24backed Yes | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-05-08?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.