Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba01ac111faf36278bfe4341de2c8638b40375332d1b5958e7a8739108e8b9b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 40c | 2,557$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 56c | 1,705$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 57c | 1,660$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 42c | 780.61$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 53c | 750$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked Yes | 43c | 700.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 637.88$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 53c | 608.99$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.87 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 46c | 594.8$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 48c | 420.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 371.06$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e5…87dfbacked Yes | 29c | 345.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 38c | 326.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 42c | 309.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…9b59backed No | 66c | 304.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 40c | 303.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 67c | 300$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 41c | 273.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 37c | 270.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 50c | 257.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 218.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked No | 64c | 212$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 29c | 211.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…02b0backed No | 80c | 206.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 22c | 191.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked No | 64c | 189.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…a398backed No | 54c | 184.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 22c | 164.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 73c | 163.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 34c | 161.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 38c | 151.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 72c | 138.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 25c | 134.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 64c | 124.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…2002backed Yes | 34c | 118.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 54c | 115.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 43c | 113.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 58c | 107.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 63c | 100.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…4badbacked No | 57c | 88.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6400backed No | 58c | 85.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 59c | 78.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 74.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…3a34backed No | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…66c9backed No | 44c | 62.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 40c | 61.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 55.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…a7a1backed No | 68c | 51.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 47c | 50.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 49c | 50.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 57c | 45.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb505…92d3backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…a8debacked No | 57c | 40.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…d4fbbacked No | 49c | 34.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…9316backed Yes | 59c | 33.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 33c | 32.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…da5dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 42c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…7e80backed No | 59c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…5f23backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…3177backed No | 72c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.