Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0ae0373064aa6144447a855acd1c3dca7708475fb047269485fdf00f7927eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Over | 31c | 3,179$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 7c | 2,933$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.55 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 2,027$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 12c | 1,263$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.55 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 8c | 1,248$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.41 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 675.97$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.18 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…f96dbacked Under | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…6c3abacked Under | 5c | 485.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 57c | 459.98$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 417.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 8c | 360$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +126%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 6c | 272.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.35 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 65c | 259.21$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 250.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 9c | 249.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 60c | 236.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 149.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 24c | 131.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 37c | 124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over | 26c | 96.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 83.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 26c | 77.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 48c | 66.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 31c | 64.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked Over | 53c | 63.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 28c | 63.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 39c | 51.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 95 | 76.8%73 W · 22 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…c8cebacked Under | 72c | 41.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…d230backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 38.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…2646backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Under | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.