Chess · resolved market
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2b7a0c56294fe48dfcdec4875bc2f76a760012a4d4c07ef6513c0da6a19b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,070$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 63c | 1,352$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes | 40c | 1,144$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed No | 75c | 914.71$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 27c | 662.29$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 599.98$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 64c | 376$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 23c | 350$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 41c | 268.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked No | 64c | 235.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 211.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked Yes | 40c | 124.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…aaaebacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 65c | 111.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 29c | 75.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 29c | 69.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 33c | 63.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 41c | 54.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…70ebbacked Yes | 38c | 50.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 51c | 49.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 59c | 42.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…7ed8backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 58c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?this page
- Will Anish Giri win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
- Will Jorden van Foreest win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
- Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
- Will Pranav Venkatesh win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
- Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?Yes won
- Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.