TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

UCF Knights vs. Utah Utes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UCF Knightsof UCF Knights, Utah Utes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked UCF Knights52c23,796$12,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,482.931,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa898…8d2ebacked UCF Knights56c17,968$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,967.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Utah Utes48c16,853$8,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,089.4430249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked UCF Knights51c10,071$5,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,934.9189645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Utah Utes46c6,420$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.2112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Utah Utes40c5,817$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.565,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Utah Utes50c4,016$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.082,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Utah Utes47c3,470$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.662,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Utah Utes49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47048855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a3…9fffbacked Utah Utes49c1,980$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…b97cbacked Utah Utes56c1,917$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked UCF Knights79c1,910$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.371,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Utah Utes49c1,827$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.2374649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Utah Utes49c1,782$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.171070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+55.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Utah Utes29c1,713$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.991,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Utah Utes49c1,585$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.6513746.7%64 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed UCF Knights55c1,537$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.342,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Utah Utes48c1,410$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.231,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed UCF Knights51c1,010$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.5616436%59 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x917e…eed9backed Utah Utes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4303030%9 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Utah Utes48c965.21$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Utah Utes46c804.35$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703250%16 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Utah Utes19c695.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4515243.4%66 W · 86 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked UCF Knights54c688.34$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.6987047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Utah Utes29c673.52$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.423,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Utah Utes47c645$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1519554.9%107 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Utah Utes47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Utah Utes49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Utah Utes43c607.38$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.623,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Utah Utes49c583.41$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3716147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Utah Utes24c552.36$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5334343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Utah Utes49c541.22$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.242339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed UCF Knights52c535.75$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1616350.9%83 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked UCF Knights79c517.35$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8943450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Utah Utes42c511.3$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.343,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Utah Utes48c500.01$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.611,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Utah Utes46c480.32$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.651,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Utah Utes18c454.03$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.54,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b54…d382backed Utah Utes48c447.92$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2157655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed UCF Knights69c430.54$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UCF Knights80c395.25$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.052,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed UCF Knights70c387.24$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.462,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Utah Utes49c363$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8775447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Utah Utes47c350$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad9…e466backed UCF Knights54c350$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed UCF Knights50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked UCF Knights52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Utah Utes41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12327048.1%130 W · 140 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed Utah Utes41c290.76$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.835925.4%15 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Utah Utes47c255.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9740755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed UCF Knights60c243.36$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.892,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0324…fdbcbacked UCF Knights43c222.77$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.232458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Utah Utes46c219.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10085248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Utah Utes45c217.82$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0244146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Utah Utes47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1122043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Utah Utes44c205$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.250745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e3b…4afdbacked Utah Utes49c204.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UCF Knights51c201.66$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.214,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Utah Utes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed UCF Knights52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah Utes47c160.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.542,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed UCF Knights63c159.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3717062.9%107 W · 63 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Utah Utes43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Utah Utes39c130.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.915939%23 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Utah Utes45c124.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9962140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked UCF Knights76c118.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6349345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc494…543cbacked UCF Knights36c112.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.222650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked UCF Knights78c106$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3245953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…7b83backed UCF Knights67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336720.9%14 W · 53 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed UCF Knights43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked UCF Knights52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1583350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb89…ec39backed Utah Utes48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Utah Utes38c92.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7457655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…b0a5backed UCF Knights57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7f…85c3backed UCF Knights53c84.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.912744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed UCF Knights69c84.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.691,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2b…cb3abacked UCF Knights71c83.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.426549.2%32 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Utah Utes51c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3123948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed UCF Knights56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.254351.2%22 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Utah Utes50c79.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8524857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Utah Utes45c78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.150548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Utah Utes49c72.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.321,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Utah Utes48c67.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0637835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Utah Utes20c64.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1570349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Utah Utes50c60.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.331647.8%151 W · 165 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed UCF Knights53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.252353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa10c…72e1backed Utah Utes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Utah Utes31c59.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.161,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3365…ce5bbacked UCF Knights51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Utah Utes48c58.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0817627.8%49 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed UCF Knights54c55.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7413565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Utah Utes48c51.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.484738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed UCF Knights53c50.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.948362.7%52 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3101…e57fbacked Utah Utes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52040%8 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked UCF Knights72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1425438.2%97 W · 157 L-14.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x350b…41e8backed UCF Knights68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.124057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Utah Utes46c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2519860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Utah Utes41c41.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Utah Utes53c41.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2213956.8%79 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Utah Utes47c41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2281528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.