Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc722173782960853b973bfb0dea7062911166e0d96cc8cbd79e9881a6d9c550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 50c | 5,927$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.74 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 53c | 1,281$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.58 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 52c | 477.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…1193backed Yes | 28c | 377.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 319$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 300.66$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 47c | 271.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 9c | 265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…edbbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 44c | 178.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 26c | 117.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 56c | 97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 27c | 62.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…ffa1backed No | 73c | 39.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…bffcbacked No | 60c | 35.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 30.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 45c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…e132backed No | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of January?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of January?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $5.00 end of January?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $7.00 end of January?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $8.00 end of January?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.